DOE/ORNL Release a Recent Market Assessment Report on IES for Buildings

The market assessment conducted for DOE/ORNL by Resource Dynamics Corporation reveals that the potential building sector market for integrated energy systems (IES) is almost 17GW in 2010, growing to over 35 GW by 2020, and includes IES systems with absorption chillers, engine-driven chillers (EDCs), and combined heat and power (CHP)-only systems. This market potential is based on achievable economics, where IES provides a minimum payback period of 10 years compared with conventional HVAC systems and purchasing electricity from the grid. Many of the IES options analyzed provide payback periods much shorter than 10 years, with a significant portion less than 4 years.

As shown in the following figure, the potential for IES is highest in office buildings, with over 10 GW. Hospitals and colleges, while already established in CHP use, each offer over 7 GW of potential for IES. Schools, retail, and hotels are smaller segments, but with their significant heating and cooling loads offer additional IES potential. Military bases also offer potential for IES, but generally for CHP-only systems. Military bases do not generally have base-wide cooling distribution systems.

The IES market potential includes increased use of absorption chillers (8.9 million tons), added thermal storage (3.2 million tons), and more engine driven chillers (2.4 million tons). Office buildings offer the maximum potential opportunities (45 percent of the total potential) for CHP with absorption units and engine-driven chillers in office buildings). Of that 4.5 GW, CHP with absorbers represent over 3.4 GW and EDCs 1.1 GW.

One important, but recognized, shortcoming of this market assessment is the exclusion of Integrated Energy Systems (IES) employing desiccant dehumidification technologies. A follow-up assessment effort is planned that will include consideration of new ASHRAE design moisture data and ventilation standard requirements and will show likely penetration by IES/desiccant combination systems and, as a result, will increase the total market potential.

If the estimated market potential is fully realized, it would reduce annual emissions of carbon dioxide by almost 18 million metric tons (based on carbon equivalent) by the year 2020, and would contribute significantly to meeting goals originally established by the Kyoto Protocol. This reduction in carbon emissions is based on displacing grid emissions from average U. S. utility plants.

The study also examined a number of scenarios to evaluate how sensitive the base case is to varying inputs. In doing so, there was a focus on how improving the cost and the efficiency of IES impact the market size. In addition, three sensitivities were added to illustrate the effects of changing energy prices on the IES market for buildings.

Overall market potential results of the sensitivity analysis indicate that improvements in the installed cost and efficiency increase the market size dramatically. Both future scenarios increase the potential market from 35 GW to almost 70 GW, nearly doubling the market size.

A copy of the full report is available here in PDF format.